🍻 A Special Dallas Edition of The Hill Spill! This Week We’ve Got: Leadership Race SZN Officially Open for Business, Trump’s $5K “Don’t You Dare Spend It Yet” Checks, and Him Calling His Own Senate Endorsee an Absolute Uggo

🍹 Howdy, y’all! Welcome to a special Friday Hill Spill. We held your favorite Thirsty Thursday letter so we could bring you all the tea from Dallas.

The non-nominating convention, delegates and no nomination, a concept we are still mildly confused by, was much more seamless than most of our sources projected. No major kerfuffles. No security mess. No public feud that ate the week.

But we come bearing tea. Leadership-race szn! A $5,000 check nobody should spend yet. Trump endorsing Ken Paxton and his suit, separately. And more!

Work hard, play hard. Pour something. Let’s get to it. 🍸

House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) told The Washington Sun, the publication formerly known as NOTUS, he will not seek a waiver to stay on as chair of his committee.

He said it in Dallas, at a two-day convention that was supposed to be about enthusiasm and checks. Then our phones started popping off with members and senior staff texting about leadership-race szn! One of our favorite subjects!

Nobody we talked to read that as a committee-process story. They read it as a leadership story. The immediate chatter was minority leader if Republicans lose the House. In a blowout, some members told us, Jordan could be a leading contender.

A Jordan spokesperson said the chairman is “focused on keeping the majority as he has said over and over and over.” The conference heard something else.

That being said, some of our GOP sources were not loving the timing on his latest commentary some viewed as an unofficial minority leader bid announcement…

“I mean it’s not super surprising on its face. But the timing is ridiculous. We’re supposed to be rallying the troops and trying to unite our coalition this week and he finds it appropriate to send up a signal on what’s next for him personally,” one senior texted us. Another said it looked like a lack of confidence that they hold the place.

Leaders have all said the same thing out loud. Majority first. Rank-and-file members told us the hallway version is already a race. Jordan, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have all stepped up outreach, campaigning and checks. It looks like saving seats. It also looks like saving relationships.

President Trump, last week in the Rose Garden, did the public loyalty tour. “I’m doing this for the speaker. I’m doing it for John Thune. I’m doing it for Steve. I’m doing it for a great chairman. Thank you, Joe, but I’m doing it for the legendary Jim Jordan. We got a win for Jim, got to keep you in the same position,” he said. Some speculated Trump’s Jim, stay in the position comments, may have sparked the waver chatter in Dallas.

“If it’s a blowout, it’s probably gonna be Jim Jordan. If we lose by a little bit, it’s still gonna be a speaker,” one lawmaker projected.

A few people told us the whole thing could get really interesting after November. Or really boring. Hold the House by a handful of seats and a lot of this chatter potentially dies. Lose ugly and the conference is having a family meeting whether anyone wants one or not.

Emmer says he wants to stay whip.

“I love my job. I would love to continue being the whip. If they want to hire somebody else, that’ll be up to the members. But I’m going to continue doing this job as long as they give me the privilege of doing this job,” he told reporter and friend of the newsletter Kate Santaliz.

Not everyone we talked to was buying it.

A couple of members said not to count him out despite the Minnesota Republican facing some recent challenges on the campaigning for candidates front. He had to cut August travel while he recovered from an injury. They also said his standing with colleagues and with Trump is better than the last time he went for the gavel.

“There are a lot of members who don’t know the true Jim. I don’t trust him. I think he is tough to beat,” a moderate told us. The same lawmaker added that “Emmer is one of the strongest candidates out there. He and Trump came back together. He has been the guy in the room. I don’t think he is the greatest candidate but one of the better candidates.”

Other lawmakers and staffers said to also keep an eye on Scalise, with his allies noting he is doing fantastic health wise after a cancer diagnosis hindered his last speaker bid. Sources we talked to pointed to his long relationships and being a fundraising machine.

“Scalise is famously disciplined and seems unbothered by the jockeying going on around him. He truly believes we’re going to hold the majority if everyone does their part to support the most targeted members of the conference,” one source told us. Front-liners have a separate gripe about tough votes landing on the floor, which could be an issue for the Louisiana Republican.

Johnson is the piece people keep coming back to as we poked around on where people are at with their loyalties as of late.

Multiple sources told us hemay run if they keep the majority or if they lose it. Giant sweeps are less likely on these maps and a narrow result gives him a case.

“If Mike tries to stay on, it would be very interesting. If it’s super narrow, I think Johnson makes a case. He’s just done such a good job. He’s really sweet. And he’s really done a very good job of never over-promising, under-delivering. He’s very transparent, he’s very available. He’s working hard,” one GOP lawmaker told us.

We were hearing goss that Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) has been encouraged to look at a leadership run, but others have tamped down on that arguing he has a pretty clutch gig on a very powerful committee.

“Not a thing. I think the conference is fed up with how this year has gone, never knowing whether we will have session on a given week or not, and there will be a family discussion post-election about our leadership direction,” one member told us, saying Smith is likely staying put as the top Republican on the tax-writing panel.

Scalise, Emmer and Jordan have all already gone for speaker following the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). That fight was delicious if you like watching grown men scheme in hallways and brutal if you have a face. We were not Hill Spill yet. We were just covering it, sleeping in ninety-minute increments and applying eye cream like it was going to reopen the House. It did not.

McCarthy allies played a role in blocking Scalise once. The health issues that shadowed him then are, members say, in a better place. Emmer ran into conservative hardlifor ners over a same-sex marriage vote and a Trump Truth Social. Jordan, a former Freedom Caucus chair, faced members who never trusted the firebrand years. Some conservatives now say he has moderated too much. Other sources told us a real blowout for Democrats could open the door to a dark horse.

“This entire leadership team has brought the conference together time and time again when it mattered most to their agenda,” one source told us. Another said the biggest questions are what Johnson does and whether the president actually picks a side, “but that doesn’t seem to distract this entire leadership team.”

There is still a lot of time before Election Day. Holding the House is not out of the question, even if history is not kind to parties that already have the White House and both chambers. Publicly they are trying to save the majority. Privately they are lining up for whatever job is left. Dallas was a rally. The texts were the race.

👀 And we are keeping an eye on the Senate too. We are hearing some conservatives would like to see John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) position himself for the top spot in the upper chamber. Stay tuned!

In the lead-up, we talked to a number of strategists and members who had the same low-grade panic. A two-day convention with delegates and no nomination, essentially a Trump rally in Dallas, on camera, right as the final stretch starts. Room for error. Not a lot of upside for the most vulnerable incumbents. Democrats would clip it. Frontliners would eat it. Chaos and an expensive cleanup was the working theory.

That is not really what happened. Logistics were largely unchaotic. The speeches sounded like most Trump events aimed at the base. It did not exactly hand Democrats a stack of content that would blow up a frontliner overnight. The people who were there did genuinely seem to be having a solid time.

The conference still split. The moderate faction still split on whether embracing Trump is the move, with pretty much all the members we talked to acknowledging that every district is different and they all need to be treated as such.

Some members in less-Trumpy districts brushed it off as not really landing at home. One lawmaker in a seat where dropping Trump’s name may not be the most effective strategy told us they do not think people back there were paying attention. Football was starting. Base event. Fundraising event. Not a persuasion event.

“Don’t think it doesn’t do anything for us. It is a fundraising idea at the end of the day. By the end of the week, old story,” one member told us.

They called it a rally to “paper over the pocketbook issues.”

“People just don’t watch,” they added. Not all swing districts are built the same. It likely plays better in a seat like Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-N.Y.) than in some of the others. “Lawler does a good job. Solid examples he can point to. Safe enough seat.”

Then there were the ones who leaned in. Lawler, Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) and Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) all gave remarks. The front-liners who did go speak told us they think attending helps more than it hurts.

Van Orden had a slightly different take on members not embracing Trump on the trail.

“You are saying there are members of Congress that are afraid of President Trump, and they’re running away, like, the girls here? That’s what they’re doing,” he told us.

“President Trump is the reason we’re able to drive this agenda through. No tax on tips, 87 percent of seniors didn’t pay any income tax on their Social Security. The average increase in a tax return for Americans was 17 percent… That’s why the economy is starting to go up. President Trump, with the Republican Congress, has been able to accomplish things that are amazing. We should be celebrating,” he added.

He also told us he does not see himself as being in a swing district. He sees himself representing a district of conservatives who don’t vote.

Around the edges: members were saltyyyy about the $25,000 suite charge, especially the ones that somehow did not include a stocked bar and snacks. It was not the fully sold-out house Trump touted. Still a crowd. After hours it got louder. Afterparties full of Trump world. Side events inside the perimeter. Members said they had a good time and looked like they meant it.

The $5,000 checks are a separate hangover. More on that in a bit…

This week on the road in Dallas we sat down with two guests on opposite sides of the aisle! The convention itself was logistically unchaotic. We, however, had a few technical difficulties that made for some chaotic camera angles while rushing around to get the tea for all you babes. We ran the tape anyway. Producer Alli is back next week where she will make sure everyone is properly yassified and in properly in frame.

First up, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, the Republican nominee in TX-28, on taking on Rep. Henry Cuellar — who some Republicans still call their favorite Democrat. Tijerina says that label is a Washington read, not a district one. He talks through what he is hearing from voters on President Trump’s pardon of Cuellar after the federal bribery case, why he timed his announcement around it, and what he wants to bring to Congress. Immigration is first on his list. Then the unexpected hobby, and it is chic: he makes his own “Tano” bracelets.

Cuellar’s told us “the attacks are meant to hide a weak record, the federal dollars in Tijerina’s ads are dollars Cuellar says he helped secure, and “the latest polling consistently shows me with a double-digit lead.” The Texas Democrat has denied the underlying charges. The pardon closed the case.

Also on tap: Democratic operative Kurt Bardella, who lives here, weighing in from Dallas on what the convention actually does. He does not think it decides November, telling us “in 55, 56 days, no one going to a poll is going to be thinking about what happened in September” — but he does think it created counterprogramming Democrats would not have had otherwise, including James Talarico going at Ken Paxton. He also fills us in on where to find fire BBQ — Terry Black’s, plus Cattleack in Farmers Branch, Wednesday through Friday, 10 to 2.

Two interviews, same week in Dallas, two very different reads. Grab a bev and tune in!

Telling voters they should back a candidate despite him being kind of busted and poorly dressed is an unconventional strategy, and one many we spoke to do not fully understand. That being said, it is the one the president employed Wednesday while touting his Texas Senate nominee, Ken Paxton.

“He may not dress right. He may not talk exactly perfectly, and he may not be the best-looking guy I’ve ever seen, but you know what he is? He’s the greatest attorney general in America, and he deserves to be your next senator,” Trump told the crowd.

the presient acknowledged his team said his takes on Paxton’s looks might be ill advised, but if there is one thing we have learned about POTUS, it’s that the man is likely to do what he feels like doing.

“They said, ‘Sir, you can’t say that.’ I said, ‘I have to.’” He did give the blue suit a little life raft. “Very spiffy,” he said.

Thursday he came back for seconds. “I don’t really like the way he looks.” Paxton smiled for the cameras. This was not just a Dallas-only bit — he has has not held back in recent months about the candidate he endorsed’s appearance. It’s Oval Office. Rose Garden. Then a convention in Paxton’s own state.

“What was that?” one GOP lawmaker said.

We are not here to judge the man’s looks. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Most people we talked to thought Trump essentially calling the guy he endorsed to oust a man once seen as a top contender to lead Senate Republicans an uggo was kind of hilarious. They also thought it was probably not helpful for attracting voters.

Quite a few Texas Republicans have very much noted Paxton has baggage, and they are worried about it. He knocked out John Cornyn, but it does not delete the rest of the file. Some of our sources also acknowledged the nominee may not be winning any beauty pageants, but don’t see that as the biggest problem. It’s not like Congress is known as a body of hot people.

One operative joked that his looks apparently have not deterred the ladies. 😬 See the Fourth of July situation, when Paxton spent the 250th in Europe with his girlfriend while Democrats posted the obvious jokes.

While Trump may have repeatedly roasted Paxton, he did take time to go after Democrat James Talarico on meat. Talarico says he eats it. Trump’s version is that he eats it and then “goes outside and throws up all over the place, because in Texas if you don’t eat meat, you’re in deep trouble.” At the convention he recycled it as Talarico hitting a barbecue and sprinting backstage to be sick. Talarico’s campaign has been circulating barbecue photos.

GOP strategists we talked to are still highly skeptical Democrats flip Texas. They think that narrative is overplayed and they are highly suss of the polling. they are, however, annoyed at how much has to be spent to get him over the finish line which could be allocated to states that are more traditionally swingy.

We hope no one ever takes a convention stage to argue that we are great at the job and, separately, kind of hideous.

Trump promised to come back to Texas “twice or three times” if he has to. “He’ll never speak to me again, but that’s okay,” he said.

Paxton’s team did not immediately respond to request for comment.

Trump used Dallas to float a $5,000 “dividend” for every American adult if Republicans keep the House and Senate. Spend it here, he said. The arena clapped. The conference, when we called around, did not want to talk about it.

We got a lot of no comments. We got jokes about the DOGE checks and the tariff checks. Deficit hawks are definitely not loving it. Almost no lawmaker we spoke to thinks the money actually shows up.

“Anyone dumb enough to believe that promise is probably still checking the mail daily for a tariff rebate or DOGE check from his previous failed promises,” one member told us on background.

“Don’t spend it yet,” another source joked.

On X, the split is not subtle. Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) said he would get a bill ready so the “Trump Dividend” can pass “immediately after” Election Day. Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) framed it as putting wasted taxpayer money back in people’s hands.

Then there were some vocal haters on the idea.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who lost his primary to a Trump-endorsed opponent, posted that he was “insulted by the notion that my vote this November could be bought for 5k,” plus the inflation.

Different kind of no. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) wrote Friday that he has “serious concerns,” that the country is already more than $40 trillion in debt, and that tying checks to an election “starts to sound like pay-to-play politics.”

“Show me how this is paid for without adding to the debt. Until then, I cannot support it.” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) did the napkin math out loud, about $1.2 trillion, and posted that “dependency is evil & soul-sucking in all its forms.”

Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) heard about it when the rest of us did. Asked on Fox whether the votes are even there, he said they will “cross that bridge when we come to it.”

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) told us the fine print is doing more work than the applause line.

“What were the conditions that President Trump said? In order to receive this thing you have to be American, an adult — which means you have to be how old? You have to be at least 18 and an American citizen. So if you can’t prove you are an American citizen, you’re not getting this.”

That, he said, is a sneaky path to voter ID: a federal check that only clears if you can show who you are.

Trump has since said he does not think he needs Congress to do it. Constitutionally, spending is Congress. Leadership was blindsided. Democrats will call it a bribe. Hawks will call it a deficit bomb. The base will call it a dividend.

I guess only time will tell. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We were going to make this week’s drink a Ranch Water. We had quite a few of them hanging with some of our favorite sources on the GOP side over the past few days. Lime, tequila, Topo. Dallas hydration. Very responsible of us! 🤠

Then we saw what is arguably the most unintentionally comical X post of all time: Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) posting about being a phoenix rising from the ashes, in pants that appear at least one size too small, in front of what appears to be AI fire.

As one source texted us: “They’re calling him the most divorced man of all time.” it is giving midlife crisis in ways we didn’t know were possible. He is clearly handling the primary loss in a totally sane way…

His wildly cring post inspired us to pivot from our original plans! We are opting instead to go with The Flaming Zombie. His congressional career is in the pretty-much-dead-but-somehow-still-lingering phase, and he apparently loves a little pyro in the background.

Donn Beach invented the Zombie in the 1930s and allegedly limited people to two because it will end you. We are adding fire, because of course we are. Light the overproof rum. Do not light your living room on fire. We are a newsletter and not your insurance company.

Shake everything but the 151 with ice. Strain into a tall glass or a tiki mug (we love a tiki mug because we are extra). Float the overproof, hollow a lime half, fill it, light it if you are less accident prone and klutzy than we are. Sprinkle cinnamon on the flame if you want to feel like a phoenix and blow it out before you drink it. Pants optional., ideally they fit.