🍻 In This Week’s Hill Spill Newsletter: Where’s Talarico, Guilfoyle’s AmEx Ask, and a Balkan Side Gig

🍹 Welcome to this week’s Hill Spill — Capitol Hill’s favorite Thirsty Thursday newsletter! It’s Thursday and we’ve got tea for you!

This week, Texas Democrats would like James Talarico to get over his flu and back on the trail. Sources have takes on Kimberly Guilfoyle’s Signal texts asking a Trump donor to wire $100K to her AmEx, and House Republicans are rallying around Chris LaCivita and James Blair after their Balkan side gig. Plus, our friend Ben Jacobs joins us on the pod from Iowa!

We also have some absolute bangers in the works that we hope to bring you in the coming days, so make sure to keep an eye out!

Pour yourself something strong and let’s get into it. 🍸

Democrats hoping to flip Texas blue would like James Talarico to take some Tamiflu, suck it up and get back on the trail.

It’s been nearly two weeks since anyone saw their best shot at a statewide win in three decades in person on the trail in Texas, and early voting starts Oct. 19.

Republicans have been hammering him on it. Paxton’s campaign has been asking “Where is James Talarico?” for days, and the president has now declared him missing in action.

His last in-person event in Texas was Sept. 26. On Monday, Sept. 28, he was in Manhattan at a Robert De Niro fundraiser with Sherrod Brown. Sounds kind of glam.

He was back for a second New York event Tuesday, then told a U.S. Hispanic Business Council gathering in Edinburg by video on Wednesday that he had gone to urgent care in Dallas the night before and been diagnosed with the flu.

He had wanted to be in the Valley for quesabirria tacos. “I guess I’ve been shaking too many hands on the campaign trail,” he said. Same day, JD Vance was in Brownsville breaking ground on Saronic’s shipyard. Talarico has done a couple interviews and virtual events since. In person, nada.

As of this week, his campaign’s events page didn’t list a single upcoming in-person event with the candidate. He’s booked for a CNN town hall on Oct. 14.

Democratic lawmakers’ patience seems to be wearing thin. “He better be on his death bed,” one Democrat told us.

“What the fuck,” a Dem operative told us.

Some are more worried than mad. “I think there is starting to be concern there is something going on,” another Democratic lawmaker told us. The Texas member noted Talarico has been everywhere this cycle up until now, so the sudden quiet is hard to miss. They think the race is close and that he can win it, but they’re worried that disappearing right before the final stretch could be an issue.

Trump has taken a break from calling Paxton ugly during stump speeches to take aim at Talarico over his absence. The president on Wednesday hopped on Truth Social and said Talarico should report to a debate stage against Paxton.

“Where is he? What is wrong with him? Bad rumors are coming out,” Trump wrote.

Talarico, who has accepted four debate invitations and challenged Paxton to do it on Fox, replied on X that he agreed and the ball was in Paxton’s court.

Paxton’s campaign did not immediately respond to our questions about whether or when he’ll debate.

Meanwhile over on the Republican side of this race, Paxton can’t stop getting recorded. The first leak came via The New York Times. At a private D.C. lunch on Sept. 24, Paxton told donors that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas dragged down Republican poll numbers. “Everybody’s numbers dropped,” he said, adding, “Right now, yeah, not good.” Then Politico got a second recording from the same lunch, Paxton saying he has little control over his own campaign’s messaging because it’s all coming from D.C. His campaign says he was talking about super PACs. Two leaks from one lunch. Somebody at that table clearly is not a fan.

Not every Dem seems particularly stressed by the sitch.

“Talarico is going to win this race. Right now, you got Donald Trump on the stump saying he thinks Paxton should debate Talarico. You got these audio leaks dropping of Paxton left and right. If I were running the Talarico campaign, I wouldn’t interrupt these terrible news cycles for Paxton,” Democratic strategist Kurt Bardella, who lives in Texas, told us.

“I know a lot of people on the right are trying to drum up conspiracy theories about Talarico, but the guy just said today he’d debate Paxton anywhere, anytime, anyplace. That doesn’t sound like a guy hiding from anything,” he added.

The Texas Republicans we talked to also aren’t panicking. Polls show a very close race, but they’re pretty confident the seat won’t flip. Texas Democrats have heard that one before, and honestly, so far Republicans have been right.

Talarico’s campaign told The Washington Sun he’ll be back on the trail this weekend. Guess we will see a schedule drop shortly.

Kimberly Guilfoyle is having a bleak af week in Athens.

Six days before the Senate confirmed her as ambassador to Greece, she was on Signal asking a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to American Express.

The texts are a wild ride…

"It won't show up anywhere," she wrote in July 3, 2025 messages to Kentucky lawyer and Trump donor Eric Deters, according to reporting by The Wall Street Journal (which has had some banger scoops as of late).

"Honey please I need you to get this done for me today," she wrote, with a prayer-hands emoji and a PDF of payment instructions. "It won't show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express that's all that will show. Please."

Deters had been angling for her help getting his tax and legal problems in front of Trump officials, and had talked about paying as much as $1 million if she delivered.

She dangled a meeting with then-IRS Commissioner Billy Long. He said that she also told him that if he came up with the money: "I will be your Trump ride or die, forever and ever."

He said he refused, because it would have cost him his marriage, and that he never got the favor. He had already paid her, by his account, $300,000 in speaking fees for Freedom Fest. Her lawyer, Jesse Binnall, disputes that the messages are real, without specifics, and says she was owed money for appearances at "patriotic events." He denies that.

On Wednesday Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters she has been a strong ambassador. On Thursday, at the foot of the stairs to his plane, with Guilfoyle there to see him off, he told them he would not discuss the story.

"You guys walk around thinking that because some source told you something and you reported it, it's the gospel. It's not the gospel. It's not the gospel for me," the AP reported.

Some Republicans said they are not surprised people are not rushing to her defense.

"Kimberly was a royal bitch to everyone, which is why no one is defending her now," one GOP operative told us.

This is her second Journal story in two weeks. On September 25 they reported that at a March dinner in Athens, talking about the looming collapse of Romania's government, she told guests, "We can do this to any country we want. We can do it here too," and got into it with Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou.

Her lawyer disputes that account. The same story said Aktor lobbyist Christos Marafatsos sat in on so many of her official meetings that some foreign officials thought he was her chief of staff. House Foreign Affairs Ranking Member Greg Meeks has already told Rubio that if that reporting holds she should be removed. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen wants a review of the matter. Rubio has not said whether State will open one.

The Daily Mail reported Thursday that the State Department's inspector general is already looking into her. Five sources told the Mail a formal IG probe has been opened into Guilfoyle and the Athens embassy, after staff complaints hit a breaking point. Three of them said it covers possible substance abuse, private planes and helicopters, her ties to the energy company, and improper gifts. The Mail also reported a 4 a.m. call from Mykonos for ice that allegedly got a security agent demoted the next day. State has not confirmed the probe.

Anywhoo, if anyone out there would like to wire $100k to our AmEx, we promise it won't show up anywhere. We love shopping. Call us on Signal. (We kid, kind of. lol) 💅

This week our friend Ben Jacobs joins us on the pod from Iowa! He’s on the ground covering the governor’s race, the Senate race and three competitive House seats. Iowa is officially a swing state again, and Ben gives us a vibe check on what he’s hearing from voters out there!

We also got into an array of lit topics, like why polls seem so wildly unreliable as of late in addition to some wild scoops Ben has had in the past.

Grab a bev and check it out! 🍸

The New York Times had a scoop on Chris LaCivita and James Blair consulting in Republika Srpska this week, and it drew some eyeballs.

Per the Times, the two MAGA Inc. advisers were in Republika Srpska (a place we had to Google since we had never heard of it if we are being completely honest) last week, paid hundreds of thousands each through a Washington firm retained by the government to advise on voting issues ahead of Sunday's election. Trump, who didn't know about it, called them "outside consultants" and said he'd fire them if he found a conflict. House Republicans are not worried.

NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) went to bat for them on X posting: "James Blair and Chris LaCivita are two of the most effective and loyal advisors President Trump has ever had. Not once has either one not answered the phone or been there when I needed anything for our House Republican team. This is a distraction, let's get back to work."

Conservative Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) also came to their defense, posting: "The attacks on @JamesBlairUSA and @ChrisLaCivita are nonsense. These are two of the best political operatives in the business. The anonymous 'WH sources' are laughable."

"Blair has always been good to me," another House Republican told us.

And a third wasn't worried it would impact races either.

"I wouldn't bet against them," the lawmaker said. "This will be old news in a day."

Retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) was saucier in his take. He told CNN they "should get out of that relationship very, very quickly." On Wolf Blitzer’s show on Thursday, he lumped them in with Kimberly Guilfoyle and called the reports "at best horrible optics, and at worst, something that's worthy of a termination."

Our friends over at Playbook were hearing it hotter. A person close to the White House told them the trip "opened the floodgates." Another said Blair and LaCivita are "in full-on panic mode" and have been calling around for defenders. "You know it's bad that Susie couldn't protect them." A MAGA Inc. consultant told Playbook the work didn't slip: a two-hour Saturday polling call still happened, and the consultant didn't know they were out of town until the Times.

Never a dull moment these days.

🍂We love fall at Sources Say. Mostly because leaves are the only thing in America that change colors on schedule and nobody demands a recount. Check out our friends at The Foliage Report for the full map.

Hot take: pumpkin spice has had its moment. It’s everywhere, it’s tired, and we’re over it. Sorry not sorry. Don’t cancel us — we’re too busy this month.

This week we’re backing the challenger: an apple cider margarita, adapted from Half Baked Harvest. Mezcal’s smoky like the back room where leadership races actually get decided. The rim’s salty like every member who got passed over for a gavel. And it’s sweet with a little bite, which is how we’d describe most of our sources.

We’ll be sipping one while we keep digging on the leadership races and doing our favorite October pastime: combing through potential October surprise oppo files. If you’ve got any, you know where to find us. 👀

The recipe:

Run a lime wedge around the rim and dip it in the cinnamon sugar and salt. Shake everything else with ice, strain over fresh ice and garnish with an apple slice and a cinnamon stick.

Have two! It’s oppo season which we love maybe even more than margs!