Tuesday was worse than even the most pessimistic Republicans we talked to expected.
Democrats swept back into the House majority and flipped the Senate, and the carnage reached deep into districts Republicans considered very safe. Democrats are on track for one of the biggest House majorities in decades, with a handful of races still being counted.
“Bonnie Blue got less f***ed',” one Republican source told us.
The most jaw-dropping loss was NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the man whose whole job was keeping the majority. He lost his own seat to Democrat Richard Ojeda, a retired Army major and former West Virginia state senator, in a district Republicans had held since 1963 and President Trump carried by about 16 points in 2024. Hudson conceded Wednesday. “WE JUST UNSEATED THE CHAIR OF THE NRCC,” Ojeda posted on X.
Hudson isn’t the only chair to go down. Rules Committee Chair Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) was trailing Democrat Chuck Hubbard by roughly 100 votes as of Wednesday, a race that looks headed for a recount.
North Carolina was especially brutal in what were largely seen as Republican safeholds. Democrats flipped at least five seats there, including those of Reps. Addison McDowell, Tim Moore and Brad Knott, all in districts where Democrats were given less than a 25% chance of winning. In Pennsylvania, four GOP incumbents fell, including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who’d survived waves before, and Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), a former Freedom Caucus chair, who lost by 10 points.
On the Senate side, Democrats flipped seats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas, with Alaska and Mississippi still too close to call.
Republicans were already pointing fingers before the polls closed, but no one we talked to saw losses this big coming. GOP operatives argued it came down to candidate quality, pointing out that the party’s campaign arms raised and spent big. But lawmakers largely pinned it on Trump, who handpicked and threw his weight behind candidates who ended up being drags on the ticket, like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina, a political newcomer Trump urged to run for her late brother Lindsey’s seat, and former RNC Chair Michael Whatley in North Carolina. All three lost.
“Apparently ass isn’t an effective closing message,” one lawmaker told us, referring to Trump’s weeks-long fixation on the backside of Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who also lost.
“He [Trump] has some really good qualities, but his worst qualities were just shining through,” another lawmaker said.
Sources also pointed to GOP gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy, who lost in Ohio. His ad featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother was a drag on the whole ticket, they said, and a lot of Republicans hated it from the start.
Then there was Trump’s closing pitch. In his final scheduled speech before Election Day, delivered in front of the newly reopened Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, he spent more than 20 minutes on the pool and his other D.C. renovation projects before even mentioning the election. He held up printed photos of old pipes and algae, and said the administration was “giving serious thought” to renaming it the Trump Reflecting Pool, before saying he was kidding.
Multiple sources argued the losses were on Trump, not leadership. But Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is stepping aside anyway. He told his staff on a call Wednesday morning that he won’t run for minority leader in the new Congress, we’ve confirmed. Johnson, who won his own reelection to an eighth term, had publicly insisted for months that he’d stay on as the top House Republican no matter what happened Tuesday. He told staff he’d spoken to Trump before making the call.
That leaves the race to lead House Republicans wide open, and it’s going to be heated. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) both jumped in Wednesday. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R_Minn.) is facing off against RSC Chairman August Pfluger (R-Texas) to remain on as whip.
Further down the ballot, Reps. Brian Jack (R-Ga.) and Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.) are running to replace Hudson at the NRCC. And Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) faces challenges from Reps. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.) and Greg Steube (R-Fla.). Republicans are scheduled to hold leadership elections Nov. 10. Stay tuned…
