The view from the Senate this week is bleak if you're John Cornyn.
President Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over him Tuesday afternoon, six days before the runoff, with early voting already underway. Top Republicans in the Senate had been lobbying Trump for months to back the incumbent, arguing the scandal-plagued attorney general puts the seat, and potentially the majority, at risk in November. The president did not ultimately heed their advice.
Democrats see Texas as a real pickup opportunity with their nominee, James Talarico, out-fundraising both Republicans and running even with Paxton in head-to-head polling — the exact scenario leadership feared.
In the hallways on Tuesday, the discomfort was hard to miss. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) praised Cornyn when asked about his thoughts on the endorsement, arguing the incumbent “is an incredibly conservative and consequential member of this body."
"He's a member of the whip team. He's going to continue to be,” he added.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) — who uses the same consultants as Paxton — steered clear of touching on whether he approved of Trump’s decision.
"I am continuing to stay out of the fight. I've worked closely with John Cornyn and Ken Paxton for more than a decade. They are both friends. And I have strong supporters on both sides of this election. I trust the voters of Texas to make their decision,” he told reporters.
A senior Republican senator, speaking on background, was more candid about the uncertainty.
"I don't know how many people will actually cast their final votes based on it, after all these saturated advertisements. Months and months and months,” they told Sources Say News. The senator pointed to Wesley Hunt's voters from the March primary as a genuine unknown — nobody is sure whether they break for Paxton, stay with Cornyn, or stay home.
"I'm bleeding a bit of humility on this one," the source added.
Cornyn — who spent Tuesday campaigning in Texas, missing a vote on war powers — posted on X that he'd be back in Washington for votes on Wednesday before returning home for the final stretch. The vote he missed was the one where Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) — fresh off his own Trump-engineered primary loss — became the fourth Republican to cross over and help advance a resolution reining in Trump's Iran war. Cassidy had voted against similar measures seven times, flipping after the loss.
The same afternoon Trump dropped the Paxton endorsement, he was on Truth Social attacking GOP Rep. Thomas Massie for sending Kentucky voters texts citing an old Trump endorsement from a previous cycle.
"Horrible Congressman Thomas Massie put out an old Endorsement, from many years ago, of him by me long before I found out that he was the Worst Congressman in the History of our Country," Trump posted on X, calling the texts "fraudulent."
Massie ultimately lost by a significant margin against Trump-backed Ed Gallrein a few hours later in what turned out to be the most expensive House primary on record , with over $32 million in ads.
Massie's race got nasty in the final days. Far-right activist Laura Loomer released a two-hour interview with Massie's ex-girlfriend the night before voting, alleging he was emotionally abusive. Massie vehemently denied any wrongdoing, alleging the attacks were politically motivated.
An attack ad accused Massie of being in a "throuple" with members of the Squad. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth showed up in-district to stump for Gallrein less than 24 hours before polls opened. Lauren Boebert, who had campaigned for Massie in Kentucky, got threatened with a primary challenge by Trump on Truth Social, though Colorado's filing deadline passed in March, which makes the threat largely symbolic.
"Yes, I saw the President's post," Boebert wrote on X. "No, I'm not mad or offended."
While some had questioned Trump’s grip ahead of the midterms, his influence appears to have largely succeeded in primaries, though multiple congressional sources said they believe the endorsements against incumbents may backfire on him in getting some of his top legislative priorities over the finish line.
And while concerns remain from many within the GOP over Paxton’s chances in a general, Cruz argued either Texas Republican could beat Talarico.
"Absolutely. I believe Republicans are going to win in November. We will keep Texas red. Talarico is an extreme left-wing candidate, and his values are wildly out of step with the voters of Texas,” he told reporters.
"I don't think the voters of Texas agree with Talarico that God is non-binary. I don't think the voters of Texas agree with Talarico that there are seven genders. Talarico was almost formed in a laboratory as the perfect leftist candidate, and he would be a formidable candidate in California or Vermont. Fortunately, I live in neither state," he added.
Cornyn has asserted he isn't dropping out, touting his record on social media.
His statement after the endorsement noted he has voted with Trump "more than 99% of the time" and asked Texans to pick the candidate better positioned to beat Talarico in November. He was already trailing Paxton in pre-endorsement polling.
The runoff is May 26.
